July 2022 Investor Call Q&A with Victor & James
Thank you to all our Elm investors who joined us for our mid-year call!
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of All Market Anomalies?
When we first heard about the overnight effect, our first reaction was: that can’t be right! But after some more digging, we found plenty of evidence for what could be a major market anomaly.
How I Learned to Stop Worrying, and Love the (Interest Rate) Bomb
It can feel like 2022 has been a pretty bad year for investing so far – but, in terms of what really matters, most investors are better off than they were at the end of 2021.
Man Doth Not Invest by Earnings Yield Alone: A Fresh Look at Earnings Yield and Dynamic Asset Allocation
Shiller’s CAPE ratio is currently higher than it’s been for 98% of the past 120 years – that said, it doesn’t tell an investor everything on its own.
For Crypto Whales: When Less is More
Usually, the more optimistic we are about an investment, the more of it we’ll want to own. However, that relationship can be turned on its head…
No Place to Hide: Investing in a World With No Risk-Free Asset
Now, more than any time in the past 70 years, investors are concerned that there’s no truly risk-free asset.
Victor a Guest on Bloomberg’s Trillions Podcast: The Road to Index Investing
Victor was recently a guest on Bloomberg’s Trillions podcast, discussing everything from his experience to Elm’s expansion.
Spending Like You’ll Live Forever
Many of our readers are involved with various forms of endowments – and there are lessons to be learned from the question of how one should invest and spend when freed from the complications of taxes and human longevity.
Who is the Biggest Investor in the Stock Market, and Why Should You Care?
The US Treasury effectively “owns” part of the stocks held by certain US investors…and this huge-but-silent investor might get a lot bigger.
Steadfast, Greedy, or Fearful?
March 2020 packed 2 ½ years of normal U.S. stock market volatility into one month. How should an investor respond to such volatility?
George Costanza At It Again: The Leveraged ETF Episode
George Costanza returns for a lesson on investment sizing – more specifically, how overly-aggressive sizing can turn a good trade into a losing one.
Uncertainty over the public and economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic will keep markets extremely volatile – but admist such uncertainty, it’s a particularly good time to take stock of long-term return prospects.
Negative Interest Rates and the Perpetuity Paradox
There is wide-ranging disagreement on the long-term impact of negative interest rates, but the real question is: are these rates a fleeting phenomenon, or are they the new normal?
Home Biased: A Case for More Indexing
“Home Bias” refers to the trend of investing more heavily in one’s own domestic market than necessary. The question is: if everyone is doing it, does all of that bias cancel itself out?
Smart Beta: The Good, the Bad, and the Muddy
Smart Beta is one of the hottest topics in finance, and everyone wants to know: is the stock market largely efficient, or are there inefficiencies that investors can profit from?
A Couple of Interviews with James & Victor
Catch up with James and Victor as they discuss Elm’s investment philosophy with Fintech Daily’s Efi Pylarinou and Mark Adelson of the Institutional Investors Journal.
If George Costanza Were a Hedge Fund Manager
Investing is arguably about making predictions and placing bets accordingly – but there are some strategies where your predictions are correct, but you lose money anyway!
Introducing Elm’s All-Equity Portfolios at Fidelity
By Victor Haghani and James White Encouraged by some of our investors, we are introducing an All-Equity portfolio to our lineup of Separately Managed Account (SMA) programs at Fidelity. Elm’s […]
The Annuity Puzzle: How Big is the Free Lunch Being Left on the Table?
The Savings Crisis is attributed to people not saving enough and making poor investments. We believe there’s another major culprit…
Tax Efficiency and Dynamic Asset Allocation: Can We Have Our Cake and Eat It Too?
We’re often asked about the tax efficiency of our dynamic investment approach, especially in regards to the tax-efficiency of our returns.
Is Vanguard More Rolls Royce, or Hyundai?
By Victor Haghani and James White “What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.” – Thomas Paine, 1776 A physician thinking about investing with Elm asked us: “If I […]
Sensible Investing in a Nutshell: Robin Powell, The Evidence-Based Investor, interviews Victor
In this video: Robin Powell, the Evidence-Based Investor, in his “journey to uncover the truth behind investing” interviews Victor.
US Tax Reform Leaves Even Less of the Pie for Individual Investors in Alternatives
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed into law last month will increase the wedge between pre-tax gross and after-tax net returns.
A Brainteaser Double-Feature for the Holidays
Here are two little puzzles that we discussed at an Elm dinner last week in London – our guests were sufficiently tickled, so we thought we’d write them up to share with you.
A Brief History of Sharpe Ratio, and Beyond
Early in the 1950s, academics and investors started proposing a variety of summary statistics to capture in a single number the quality of an investment – no small feat, as history shows.
Elm in the Wall Street Journal
From The Wall Street Journal’s Sam Goldfarb: “Since 2011, Mr Haghani has run, from a small office near his home in London, Elm Partners Management LLC, an investment firm that now manages around $550 million of assets.”
What Didn’t Happen on Black Monday 1987
I was 25 years old and had been on John Meriwether’s Arb Desk for just over a year, following two years working in Salomon’s Bond Portfolio Analysis Group…
Market Multiple Mean-Reversion: Red Light or Red Herring?
While there may be reasons to worry about the current price levels of U.S. equities, but…
Elm coin-flipping Research discussed in Economist Buttonwood article
From The Economist: “Who wants mediocrity?”
When (if Ever) Has it Paid to Wait for a Stock Market Correction?
An investor once told us she wanted to add to her account, but felt the market was so high that she should wait for a correction before investing.
Financial Times full page article about Elm (and Victor)
“Mr. Haghani has been on an intellectual journey that, in many ways, mirrors the evolution and central debates of the modern investment industry.”
What’s the Best Way to Get Invested in the Market?
A few friends asked me how to go about putting more of their savings into the stock market. Is it better to jump in all at once, to average-in over time, or to wait for a market correction?
Tax-Efficient Investing for US Citizens Long-Term Resident in the UK
US citizens who have been living in the UK for a long time are facing significant changes in how they’ll be taxed in the UK.
Vic’s TEDx Talk: Quitting is For Winners
In this TEDx talk, Victor explores why the use of a pre-defined stop-loss can be valuable in big life decisions, and how such an approach can both reduce losses and generate profits.
How much of a good thing is best for you?
You can invest in only two assets: a risk-free asset and public equities. Your choices are: A) 100% risk-free, or B) 10% risk-free and 90% equities. What sort of returns would make you choose B?
What does family planning have to do with investing?
We recently launched a new sub-section of our website, Elm Labs, as a place to experiment with interactive research and educational tools. Our first post: a (yet tricky) family planning puzzle.
Fees or Performance?
In a recent interview, I was asked: “Should investors focus on fees or performance?” Later, I realized that implies we need to make a choice between fees and performance, but we don’t – we can enjoy low fees AND good performance.
What’s all the hoopla? Passive indexers are still a rare breed
Everyone’s talking about how passive indexing is taking over. That may be a good or bad thing, depending on perspective, but a better question might be: is that what’s actually happening?
What’s up with REITs?
There are several plausible explanations for REITs’ recent strength – one intriguing explanation that you may have heard about involves an upcoming change in how REITs are classified in indexes.
Elm’s strategy in The Journal of Portfolio Management
Our research paper, “A Case Study for Using Value and Momentum at the Asset Class Level”, was recently published in The Journal of
RealVisionTV: An Interview With Victor Haghani (8 min video)
Victor sat down with Raoul Pal, 25-year market veteran and founder of RealVisionTV to discuss his career, his thoughts on investing, and how Elm came to be.
Return chasing can be hazardous to your wealth
“Before I tell you what I do, I’m going to ask and answer the most important question you should put to me: Who is losing the money that I’m going to make for you?”
In The News: Elm Launches Robo Portfolio Solution
Elm has officially launched its online Robo portfolio, based on the Active Index Investing strategy. Investor accounts, via Separately Managed Accounts at Fidelity, are now available.
Infographic: How much do taxes matter in investing?
Taxes can sometimes matter more than fees or performance, as different investment styles can lead to huge differences in taxes paid – and for high-rate investors, that can have a huge impact.
Video: How risky is your stock market?
In this short video, we’ll discuss the five perspectives on stock market risk – and, more importantly, which is the most relevant for you and your various investing objectives.
Video: The most important number you won’t find in the Wall Street Journal
In this short talk, we’ll show you how to compute the most important number that’s missing from the Wall Street Journal for yourself.
Our Asset Allocation Methodology
In this note, we’ll describe the three main components of our Active Index Investing approach: the construction of the Baseline portfolio, as well as the value and momentum overlays that lead to a responsive portfolio.