Featured Insights

How Likely is a Stock Market Crash?

December 2, 2025 — By Victor Haghani and James White[note] Thank you to Dave Blob, John Campbell, William Goetzmann, Saman Majd, Vladimir Ragulin and Jeffrey Rosenbluth for their helpful comments on this note, and to Vladimir Piterbarg, Leif Andersen, Jesper Andreasen, Peter Jaeckel, and all the other quants who weighed in on our use of the Heston option pricing model. This is not an offer or solicitation to invest, nor are we tax experts and nothing herein should be

Investing 101

Leverage: Sense and Non-Sense

November 20, 2025 — By Victor Haghani and James White[note] This is not an offer or solicitation to invest, nor are we tax experts and nothing herein should be construed as tax advice. Past returns are not indicative of future performance.[/note]ESTIMATED READING TIME: 9 min. Introduction There's a lot of leverage in the US stock market right now. Margin debt at retail brokerage firms is at a record $1.2 trillion, leveraged ETFs add another $250 billion to that total,

Investing 101

Extrapolators Beware The Money Pump

November 5, 2025 — By Victor Haghani and James White[note] This is not an offer or solicitation to invest, nor are we tax experts and nothing herein should be construed as tax advice. Past returns are not indicative of future performance.Thank you to Rich Dewey, Larry Hilibrand, John Karubian, Marlin Risinger, Jeff Rosenbluth and Mike Popov (Vic's excellent and patient ping-pong coach) for their helpful comments.[/note]ESTIMATED READING TIME: 8 min. Well, so what? Some economist called you irrational. Why

Featured Insights

Essential Wisdom from Twenty Personal Investing Classics

October 29, 2025 — By Jerry Bell, Victor Haghani and James White[note] This is not an offer or solicitation to invest, nor are we tax experts and nothing herein should be construed as tax advice. Past returns are not indicative of future performance.[/note]ESTIMATED READING TIME: 16 min. Introduction The path to financial security is remarkably simple. Twenty of the most influential voices in personal finance - from John Bogle's revolutionary index fund philosophy to Morgan Housel's behavioral insights -

Investing 101

The Permanent Portfolio's Temporary Appeal

October 23, 2025 — A number of clients have asked us about a recent Buttonwood column describing the "Permanent Portfolio" strategy. Are appealing returns enough to override the basics of asset allocation?

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