Research
FilterInvestment Theory
When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich
September 26, 2024 — By Victor Haghani, James White and Jerry Bell [note] Many people were instrumental in bringing this experiment and research article to life. Foremost are the contributions of our research associate James Cross, who helped design and single-handedly programmed the Crystal Ball game during the summer of 2023 while still an undergraduate at Princeton. We thank our long-time research collaborator Richard Dewey for his guidance in designing the study and interpreting the results. Jason Zweig of
How Elm Works
The Most Important Number Not in The Wall Street Journal
September 9, 2024 — By Victor Haghani, James White and Jerry Bell Estimated reading time: 3 min. Announcing a new quarterly market snapshot going out to our research subscribers with long-term expected return estimates for US and global equity markets, plus some other useful bits of information which are also hard to find. If you'd like to receive it, you can sign up here – and yes, it's free. When we think broadly about how to invest, a good starting
Taxes
Direct Indexed Tax Loss Harvesting: Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze?
August 27, 2024 — Direct indexed tax loss harvesting is incredibly popular nowadays, and has become a huge selling point for some companies - but is it all it's cracked up to be?
Investment Theory
Introducing P-CAPE: Incorporating the Dividend Payout Ratio Improves Our Favorite Estimator of Stock Market Returns
June 19, 2024 — The Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings ratio, also known as CAPE, has served many investors well - but here at Elm, we think it might be time for an update.
Investment Theory
TIPS Do Offer Valuable Inflation Protection - But You Need to Decide What You’re Protecting
May 7, 2024 — TIPS are a seemingly attractive counter to inflation-related worries, but do they really offer the protection investors are hoping for?
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Reading Lists
Publications
Elm Original Research
Tax Efficiency and Dynamic Asset Allocation: Can We Have Our Cake and Eat It Too?
Victor Haghani & James White — 2018
Elm Original Research
A Case Study for Using Value and Momentum at the Asset Class Level
Victor Haghani & Richard Dewey — 2016
Elm Original Research
Return Chasing and Trend Following: Superficial Similarities Mask Fundamental Differences
Victor Haghani & Samantha McBride — 2016
Clifford Asness, Antti Ilmanen & Thomas Maloney — 2015
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