Investment Theory

Introducing P-CAPE: Incorporating the Dividend Payout Ratio Improves Our Favorite Estimator of Stock Market Returns

June 19, 2024 — The Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings ratio, also known as CAPE, has served many investors well - but here at Elm, we think it might be time for an update.

Investment Theory

TIPS Do Offer Valuable Inflation Protection - But You Need to Decide What You’re Protecting

May 7, 2024 — TIPS are a seemingly attractive counter to inflation-related worries, but do they really offer the protection investors are hoping for?

Investment Theory

Merton Share Derivations: What's in your denominator?

May 2, 2024 — Balancing one's portfolio between risky and risk-less assets is no small feat, but there's one rule of thumb that we've found to be largely reliable: the Merton Share.

Investment Theory

Thinking Outside the BOXX

February 27, 2024 — There’s been a lot of excitement about BOXX, a new ETF designed to give investors short-term returns with the tax character of long-term capital gains...but is there a catch?

Elm News

Elm Article in Bloomberg Magazine

February 16, 2024 — Getting the size of a trade wrong can turn even a good trade into a bad bet. That’s the subject of our new article published in this month’s Bloomberg magazine.

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Victor Haghani & James White — 2018

Victor Haghani & Richard Dewey — 2016

Victor Haghani & Samantha McBride — 2016

Clifford Asness, Antti Ilmanen & Thomas Maloney — 2015

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