Risk and Return

Would you risk going broke for a shot at becoming a billionaire? Maximizing extreme wealth can mean taking extreme risks.

The CFTC recently cleared the way for a new kind of contract - the perpetual future - to trade in the United States, opening the door for platforms like Kalshi and Coinbase...but the decision didn't sit well everywhere.

One of the central themes of our research is the importance of investment sizing. We’ve always preferred a more forward-looking approach – and to see why that’s our preference, it’s helpful to be precise about what we mean by 'expected return.'

If AI can write code, pass exams, and reason through complex problems… can it beat the market? We put today's leading AI models to the test - and the results may surprise you.

What if selling your startup shares could mean paying little to no federal capital gains tax? QSBS is one of the most powerful and overlooked wealth-building opportunities available.

Vanguard's Total World Stock ETF is an elegantly simplistic product...but is simplicity costing you money?

Rather than worrying about IPO inclusion timing, investors would be better served focusing on the long-term expected returns of the markets they're invested in.

Regular readers know we've been evangelizing a unified approach to lifetime investing and spending for a long time, which is why we're so excited about the work Yale Professor James Choi is doing.

Many of us sit on the advisory boards and investment committees of university endowments, charitable foundations, or family trusts, and several have recently asked us what big recommendations we'd make for their institution's investing process.

Thank you to the hundreds of readers who submitted their estimates for the probability of a stock market crash over the coming year - though the data we received wasn't quite what we were expecting.

Is a stock market crash just around the corner? It's a question on a lot of investors' minds these days - in this note, we'll explore a few different approaches to answering this question, including a detailed explanation of our favorite.

There's a lot of leverage in the US stock market right now, and it raises an interesting question: when does it make sense to borrow so you can own more stocks than the value of your wealth?