Risk and Return
June 9, 2025 — By Victor Haghani and James White [note] This is not an offer or solicitation to invest, nor are we tax experts and nothing herein should be construed as tax advice. Past returns are not indicative of future performance.The inspiration for this article is an unpublished note by our friend and head of markets at Citigroup, Andy Morton: "Inferring an Expected Rate and a Term Premium from Long Maturity Swaps and Options." (2022). Thank you also
Risk and Return
May 12, 2025 — By Victor Haghani and James White [note]This is not an offer or solicitation to invest, nor are we tax experts and nothing herein should be construed as tax advice. Past returns are not indicative of future performance. All errors are our own, they are fewer due to the help of our friends David Blob, Larry Hilibrand, Mark Jansen, and Jeffrey Rosenbluth, as well as our colleague Jerry Bell, who gave their comments on this article.
Risk and Return
March 26, 2025 — By Victor Haghani and James White [note]This is not an offer or solicitation to invest, nor are we tax experts and nothing herein should be construed as tax advice. Past returns are not indicative of future performance. Thank you to Professors John Campbell and Nick Barberis for pointing us to relevant areas of the academic literature, and to Jeff Rosenbluth and Larry Hilibrand for their comments.[/note]ESTIMATED READING TIME: 8 min. As market prices change over
Risk and Return
March 14, 2025 — Since the election of Donald Trump, the global stock market as a whole has been pretty tranquil...but this placid surface view masks some pretty meaningful underlying turbulence.
Risk and Return
March 3, 2025 — Here is an idea that defies conventional wisdom: the stock market has delivered most of its return in the night-time, when it’s fast asleep. Wait, what?
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