Elm in the Press

August 4, 2026 — Victor Haghani — founder of Elm Wealth, co-author of “The Missing Billionaires” and former founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management — joins Monetary Matters to explain why the stock market doesn't follow a random walk. Drawing on his new paper "Who Killed the Random Walk?", Victor lays out a model where value investors, static asset allocators, and "extrapolators" interact to produce the excess volatility, momentum, and boom-bust cycles that classical finance theory can't explain. Jack

July 2, 2026 — Elm’s Jerry Bell, Victor Haghani and James White tested four popular AI models on a simulated trading challenge, asking them to place bets on the S&P 500 and Treasury bonds after reading advance copies of Wall Street Journal front pages.

July 1, 2026 — From hedge funds to wealth managers, Wall Street has embraced artificial intelligence in search of an investing edge. Researchers are now asking what happens when more investors turn to similar AI models to find one: buying the same stocks, reacting to the same headlines, and sometimes making the same mistakes.

June 23, 2026 — A new study by Jerry Bell, Victor Haghani and James White of Elm Wealth shows just how hard macro trading can be.

June 18, 2026 — In this episode of The Smarter Planner Podcast, host Belle Osvath welcomes back Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and co-author of The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions.

June 18, 2026 — It sounds like an investor’s dream - seeing tomorrow’s financial headlines today. So why did finance pros go bust when given the chance?

June 18, 2026 — In this episode of Odds on Open, we sit down with Victor Haghani to dissect why institutional alpha frequently breaks down during the position sizing phase.

June 15, 2026 — What happens to great fortunes over generations - and why do so few billionaire families stay wealthy?

April 15, 2026 — Elm Wealth Founder & CIO Victor Haghani discusses being underweight US equities, tracking opportunities outside the US, and the possible slate of upcoming blockbuster IPOs.

April 14, 2026 — Victor Haghani, Elm Wealth CIO, joins Power Lunch to discuss any concerns regarding upcoming IPOs.

January 7, 2026 — It’s the $64 trillion question - will there be a stock market crash soon?

December 26, 2025 — What are the chances of the stock market crashing over the next year? It’s a question every investor should periodically ask.

November 12, 2025 — In this episode, founder of Elm Wealth and co-founder of LTCM Victor Haghani shares lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and contrasts today’s highly levered hedge-fund world with LTCM’s era.

November 5, 2025 — In this episode, we sit down with Victor Haghani to explore his journey from running complex hedge fund strategies to adopting a simplified, evidence-based investment approach.

October 3, 2025 — Markets move quickly—interest rates rise and fall, stocks swing, and risk levels shift. For most investors, keeping portfolios aligned with these changes is time-consuming, complex, and can lead to costly tax consequences.

August 21, 2025 — Just wrapped a powerful conversation with Victor Haghani — from our early days at LTCM to his work at Elm Wealth and The Missing Billionaires. We covered: LTCM’s collapse & the psychology of leverage Why poor sizing—not poor picks—kills generational wealth Elm’s dynamic allocation & utility-based frameworks Asian HNWIs & cross-border portfolio design Liquidity trade-offs in alternatives vs passive strategies Wisdom from the frontlines of risk, behavior & long-term wealth Grateful to reconnect and reflect

July 11, 2025 — In the 57th episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave speaks with Victor Haghani, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Elm Wealth. Victor shares his personal experiences as a founding partner of Long Term Capital Management, the importance of probabilistic thinking, results from his famous coin flipping experiment, why bet sizing is the things most investors get horribly wrong, and other insights from his book "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions." Recorded

June 27, 2025 — In this episode of the BiggerPockets Money podcast, Mindy and Scott speak with Victor Haghani, a seasoned financial expert whose journey from Wall Street titan to FIRE advocate will transform how you think about wealth building.

June 27, 2025 — Today’s guest is Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of Elm Wealth, which focuses on managing wealth with an emphasis on diversification, low fees, and tax efficiency. He’s also the author of The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions.

April 24, 2025 — Victor Haghani and Barbara Friedberg discuss the newly launched ELM ETF and how it might revolutionize your investing.

April 21, 2025 — "Bloomberg ETF IQ" focuses on the opportunities, risks and current trends tied to the trillions of dollars in the global exchange traded funds industry. Today's guests: CIO of Elm Wealth and Co-Founding Partner of Long-Term Capital Management Victor Haghani, and Vanguard Fixed Income Product Manager Rebecca Venter.

February 18, 2025 — One aspect of investing that is infrequently discussed and vastly under analyzed is the optimal sizing of bets and its impact on risk–return trade-offs and wealth creation (or destruction) over multiple periods (including the likelihood of the individual or institution to remain solvent). Victor Haghani and James White’s book, The Missing Billionaires, provides an extensive and unique treatment of this important topic.

February 14, 2025 — Elm Wealth, an independent investment management firm dedicated to intelligent and cost-effective wealth management, today announced the launch of its Elm Market Navigator (NYSE: ELM) exchange-traded fund (ETF). With roughly $362 million in assets, this is the most well-capitalized ETF launched this year.

December 14, 2024 — In this public lecture, Victor Haghani discussed the hidden effects of the largest trends in retail investing. While it’s never been easier, cheaper, or more efficient for investors to put their money to work, investors may not be better off. Gamified trading apps, niche ETFs, and gambles masquerading as investments have a cost that’s harder to spot but is little different from the damage inflicted on portfolios by high fees. Haghani delved into the hidden

December 10, 2024 — It was a pleasure to welcome Victor Haghani, the Founder and CIO of Elm Wealth Management back to the Alpha Exchange for an engaging discussion on those turbo-charged financial products called leveraged ETFs. Our conversation is focused on the large product suite built around MicroStrategy, a software company whose mission appears to be solely focused on the accumulation of bitcoin. Itself a stock realizing 75 to 150 vol, MSTRs two times daily return products –

December 10, 2024 — Today's guest is Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth. Victor is, in many ways, one of the last tactical asset allocators standing after the 2010s. That might be because Victor wouldn’t categorize himself as such. Rather, he sees his dynamic index investing approach not as a tactical alternative to traditional static portfolios, but as the rational approach for anyone starting from first principles. This conversation dances between theory and implementation. Victor is just as comfortable

December 8, 2024 — Author Victor Haghani discusses key elements of successful wealth building and asks "Where are the Missing Billionaires?" with Christine Benz. Video courtesy of Bogleheads. The content on this page is being provided as general market commentary and for educational purposes only. It does not constitute any form of investment advice, or recommendation to buy or sell any securities or adopt any investment strategy mentioned herein. Any investment strategies and investment results discussed herein are for

December 6, 2024 — Victor Haghani started his career at Salomon Brothers and shortly after became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. He was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management and established its London office. The failure of LTCM was a life-changing experience that led him to question and revise much of the way he thought about the economy, markets, and investing. His new book - The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to

December 5, 2024 — President-elect Donald Trump’s pick of a crypto proponent to be the next head of the US securities regulator lifted Bitcoin to $100,000 for the first time. French assets rebounded slightly as investors debated the implications of the ousting of Michel Barnier’s government. The Opening Trade has everything you need to know as markets open across Europe. With analysis you won't find anywhere else, we break down the biggest stories of the day and speak to

November 4, 2024 — Today we discuss with the author of The Missing Billionaires the importance of the sizing of our asset allocation. Size matters more than we give it credit for when it comes to what we invest in. In fact, you can make some lousy bets as long as you size them right. Listen in as we discuss why.

October 29, 2024 — WSJ security correspondent Sune Rasmussen on why captagon — an amphetamine-like drug — represents a security threat to America’s Mideast allies. And the U.S. has a shortage of air-defense missiles. Nancy Youssef, a national security correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, explains why. Plus, Journal politics editor Ben Pershing on how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are trying to pull ahead in a neck-and-neck race. And would a time machine make you a great investor?

October 24, 2024 — Vanguard founder John Bogle‘s “cost matters hypothesis” (CMH) was based on the mathematical truth that the sum of all active portfolios equals the market portfolio. From this it follows that the average return on all active portfolios must equal the market return, minus the fees charged by active investment managers. This may have been the single most powerful argument driving the relentless growth of indexing over the past 30 years. However, now that trading and

October 14, 2024 — It sounds like an investor’s wildest dream. A surprising experiment shows that it shouldn’t be. Huge sums are lavished each year on Wall Street economists and strategists asked to gaze into their crystal balls ahead of market-moving economic numbers. When they mostly get it wrong and there is a surprise, the news is big enough to make front-page news in the next day’s print edition of The Wall Street Journal. But what if a trader

September 27, 2024 — If investors had known in advance the size of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate cut, would they have made big money on stocks and bonds trading on this market-moving intel? Surprisingly, the answer appears to be a resounding no, at least when it comes to amateur traders and their ilk, according to a recent study from Elm Partners Management’s Victor Haghani and James White.

September 26, 2024 — Buy the rumour, sell the news, goes the saying. But how much money could you make betting on stocks and bonds if you really did have tomorrow’s headlines, today? Inspired by Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s conjecture that even blessed with a crystal ball, most investors would quickly go bust, a fun paper published this week by Victor Haghani (formerly a partner of Long-Term Capital Management) and James White (chief executive of Haghani’s Elm Partners) sought to

September 26, 2024 — Nobody in the world wants yesterday’s papers. Within 24 hours, they’re no use for anything more than wrapping fish and chips. But tomorrow’s papers are no more useful if you’re playing the stock market. In the short run, knowledge of the next day’s news doesn’t help you make money.

June 18, 2024 — This is an interview with Victor Haghani who is among many other things… the Co-Founder of LTCM (long term capital management), the Founder of Elm Wealth and the author of Missing Billionaires. In this interview we focused on Victor himself... his experiences at Solomon in the 80s and a brush with Bill Browder (who by the way was recently knighted), comments on Jim Simons and Nassim Taleb, an incredible moment of serendipity that would have changed

May 16, 2024 — The conversation dives into the practicalities of investing, the common pitfalls of financial decision-making, and the psychological aspects that often trip up even the most astute investors. Victor's approach to simplifying complex financial concepts and his emphasis on learning from past investment outcomes make this discussion a must-listen for anyone looking to navigate the often turbulent waters of personal finance. His personal anecdotes, combined with a straightforward breakdown of investment principles, provide a roadmap that

May 11, 2024 — The key to long-term investment success is being as conservative as possible. That’s just the opposite of what most investment professionals advise. They contend that taking on more risk is more lucrative over a long time horizon. Meanwhile, long-term performance rankings consistently show that advisers who incur the greatest risk often land near the bottom of the pack.

May 8, 2024 — Victor Haghani has been selected for inclusion in Marquis Who's Who. As in all Marquis Who's Who biographical volumes, individuals profiled are selected on the basis of current reference value. Factors such as position, noteworthy accomplishments, visibility, and prominence in a field are all taken into account during the selection process.

April 30, 2024 — Dive into the finance world with Victor Haghani, a founding partner of Long Term Capital Management, as he shares his journey from the top of the hedge fund game to pioneering dynamic indexing with Elm Wealth. Victor breaks down complex finance topics and shares stories about the big names he's worked with like Michael Lewis. Whether you're a finance newbie or a seasoned investor, there's something in this chat for everyone. Tune in for a

April 24, 2024 — Victor Haghani wants to talk about what he calls the “risk matters hypothesis”. It’s a project he describes as his most exciting in years, even though others, he says, might consider it a statement of the obvious.

April 23, 2024 — Why investment sizing is an important - yet often overlooked - factor in investor outcomes. Our guest on the podcast today is Victor Haghani. He is the co-author of a new book called The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions. In 2011, Victor founded Elm Wealth, an investment advisory firm for high-net-worth individuals. He started his career at Salomon Brothers in 1984, where he became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group.

April 22, 2024 — In Episode 360 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Victor Haghani about his book The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions and what a growing body of literature has to say about sensible wealth management and how to invest for the long term. Haghani started his career at Salomon Brothers in 1984, where he became a Managing Director in the bond-arbitrage group, and in 1993, he was a co-founding partner of Long-Term

April 12, 2024 — Today the authors are principals at Elm Wealth, a multibillion-dollar wealth-management practice. They argue forcefully for a broader adoption of the “Merton share,” named after the Nobel-winning economist Robert Merton: “The expected profit required from a gamble increases not with the size of the risk, but rather with the size of the risk, the authors explain.

April 9, 2024 — The stock market crash of 1929 was a pivotal event that rippled across the globe. The Great Crash rocked financial markets, not to mention the world economy, and proved to be a precursor to the Great Depression. The sudden selloff wiped out the fortunes of investors who were ill prepared to ride out a bear market. Today, investors must heed the lessons from volatile markets of the past and take stock of hidden risks that

January 8, 2024 — Co-authors Victor Haghani and James White use the Vanderbilts in their personal finance book to demonstrate how (remarkably) few billionaires today are heirs of old money.

December 20, 2023 — Haghani’s book, “The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions,” co-written with James White, was released earlier this year, and was named among the best books of 2023 by The Economist. The book draws upon Haghani’s decades of experience in the world of finance, from managing a Wall Street hedge fund to advising investors in low-cost index funds, or, as Haghani put it, “instead of trying to beat the market, just trying to get

December 11, 2023 — Why are there not more billionaires today? That is the provocative question posed by the new book The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions by Victor Haghani and James White. According to the book, there were enough US millionaires in the year 1900 to have generated as many as 16,000 billionaires today. In fact, it is hard to identify any billionaires today whose fortune traces back to before the 20th century. Video courtesy

November 29, 2023 — Financial “wisdom” is said to be cyclical rather than cumulative, but that’s unfair. At least in the dominion of portfolio management and design, academics and money managers have made great strides in decoding Mr. Market’s cryptic signals over the past half century. The challenge, having led the proverbial horse to water, is making him drink. The stakes are high. History, in fact, suggests that missed opportunity costs are immense, notes “The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to

November 24, 2023 — Victor Haghani and James White are co-authors of "The Missing Billionaires, A Guide to Better Financial Decisions." Victor is also the founder and CIO of Elm Wealth and David is the CEO, where they implement these concepts for their clients. This fascinating book discusses investment decision-making and risk-sizing and how to make better financial decisions with your wealth.

November 10, 2023 — Victor Haghani is co-author of the book The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions. Haghani started his career in 1984 at Salomon Bros., where he became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. In 1993 he was a co-founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management, and in 2011 he founded Elm Wealth to help clients, including his own family, manage and preserve their wealth.

October 31, 2023 — The Missing Billionaires by Victor Haghani and James White explains what happened to the wealth of prior financial titans. Discover investing secrets from the Missing Billionaires, and how you can benefit.

October 16, 2023 — In Episode 16 of The Investing Show, we feature an insightful interview with Victor Haghani, a former hedge fund manager who has transitioned from complex investment strategies to a simpler approach. Video courtesy of The Investing Show.

September 27, 2023 — Since Long-Term Capital Management’s collapse 25 years ago this month, the story of the hedge fund’s fall from grace continues to echo through markets and the financial world. LTCM’s trading decisions and the personalities involved have been amply discussed in multiple books, articles and even business school case studies. But one question merits more discussion: how should an LTCM partner, for example myself, have decided how much to invest in the fund we managed?

September 22, 2023 — Twenty-five years is a long time to think about the consequences of your involvement in one of Wall Street’s most infamous bailouts. Victor Haghani, co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management, has come to believe that a better understanding of his personal risk would’ve helped the hedge fund balance its own dangers.

September 22, 2023 — Victor Haghani, Elm Partners Management CIO and founder, talks about the collapse of his firm, Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. LTCM was recapitalized by the New York Fed. Haghani talks about the lessons learned from this process on Bloomberg Markets: European Close. Video courtesy of Bloomberg TV.

September 21, 2023 — If you ever hear a professional investor talk about a trade that taught them a lot, prick up your ears. Usually, this is code for “a time I lost an absolutely colossal amount of money”, and you are in for one of the better stories about how finance works at the coalface.

September 14, 2023 — If the wealthiest families of the past century spent a reasonable amount of their wealth, invested in the stock market, and paid taxes, there would be thousands of billionaires today. But there aren’t. So, what happened? To answer this question, we are joined by authors and finance professionals, Victor Haghani and James White.

March 30, 2023 — Victor was recently a guest on Larry Bernstein's What Happens Next in 6 Minutes podcast along with their friend and colleague, Myron Scholes.

May 4, 2022 — Victor was recently featured on MoneyTree's podcast with host Kirk Chisholm, which focuses on providing education and information for investors.

June 1, 2021 — Victor was recently a guest on Bloomberg's Trillions podcast, discussing everything from his experience in the industry to Elm's expansion.

March 19, 2021 — We're happy to announce that 'Smart Beta: The Good, the Bad and the Muddy' has been awarded the Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Award for Outstanding Article!

March 12, 2018 — In this video: Robin Powell, the Evidence-Based Investor, in his “journey to uncover the truth behind investing” interviews Victor.

November 14, 2017 — From the Wall Street Journal: "Since 2011, Mr. Haghani has run Elm Partners, an investment firm that now manages around $550 million of assets."

October 1, 2017 — We must have said something insightful, because our research has been awarded the William F. Sharpe award for Paper of the Year!

September 26, 2017 — From The Economist: "Who wants mediocrity?"

May 23, 2017 — The research we conducted into how people bet on a biased coin-flip has been published in the Spring 2017 edition of the Journal of Portfolio Management.

May 8, 2017 — "Mr. Haghani has been on an intellectual journey that, in many ways, mirrors the evolution and central debates of the modern investment industry."

December 15, 2016 — Victor recently joined Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast to discuss mathematics in investing.

May 27, 2016 — Our research paper, "A Case Study for Using Value and Momentum at the Asset Class Level", was recently published in The Journal of Portfolio Management!

April 19, 2016 — Victor sat down with Raoul Pal, 25-year market veteran and founder of RealVisionTV to discuss his career, his thoughts on investing, and how Elm came to be.

December 4, 2015 — Elm has officially launched its online robo-portfolio based on its Dynamic Index Investing strategy, and investor accounts are now available!