Investment Theory

Investment Theory

When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich

September 26, 2024 — By Victor Haghani, James White and Jerry Bell [note] Many people were instrumental in bringing this experiment and research article to life. Foremost are the contributions of our research associate James Cross, who helped design and single-handedly programmed the Crystal Ball game during the summer of 2023 while still an undergraduate at Princeton. We thank our long-time research collaborator Richard Dewey for his guidance in designing the study and interpreting the results. Jason Zweig of

Investment Theory

The Most Important Number Not in The Wall Street Journal

September 9, 2024 — By Victor Haghani, James White and Jerry Bell Estimated reading time: 3 min. Announcing a new quarterly market snapshot going out to our research subscribers with long-term expected return estimates for US and global equity markets, plus some other useful bits of information which are also hard to find. If you'd like to receive it, you can sign up here – and yes, it's free. When we think broadly about how to invest, a good starting

Investment Theory

Introducing P-CAPE: Incorporating the Dividend Payout Ratio Improves Our Favorite Estimator of Stock Market Returns

June 19, 2024 — The Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings ratio, also known as CAPE, has served many investors well - but here at Elm, we think it might be time for an update.

Investment Theory

TIPS Do Offer Valuable Inflation Protection - But You Need to Decide What You’re Protecting

May 7, 2024 — TIPS are a seemingly attractive counter to inflation-related worries, but do they really offer the protection investors are hoping for?

Investment Theory

Merton Share Derivations: What's in your denominator?

May 2, 2024 — Balancing one's portfolio between risky and risk-less assets is no small feat, but there's one rule of thumb that we've found to be largely reliable: the Merton Share.

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