September 26, 2024 — By Victor Haghani, James White and Jerry Bell [note] Many people were instrumental in bringing this experiment and research article to life. Foremost are the contributions of our research associate James Cross, who helped design and single-handedly programmed the Crystal Ball game during the summer of 2023 while still an undergraduate at Princeton. We thank our long-time research collaborator Richard Dewey for his guidance in designing the study and interpreting the results. Jason Zweig of

September 9, 2024 — By Victor Haghani, James White and Jerry Bell Estimated reading time: 3 min. Announcing a new quarterly market snapshot going out to our research subscribers with long-term expected return estimates for US and global equity markets, plus some other useful bits of information which are also hard to find. If you'd like to receive it, you can sign up here – and yes, it's free. When we think broadly about how to invest, a good starting

March 23, 2022 — In a recently-published article in the Journal of Derivatives, we ask whether or not options make sense for a broad class of investors.

January 26, 2016 — “Before I tell you what I do, I’m going to ask and answer the most important question...: Who is losing the money that I’m going to make for you?”

March 8, 2017 — A friend asked me how to put more of their savings into the stock market. Is it better to jump in, average-in over time, or wait for a market correction?

December 20, 2017 — Here are two puzzles that we discussed at an Elm dinner last week - our guests were sufficiently tickled, so we thought we’d write them up to share with you.

November 26, 2017 — In the 1950s, academics and investors proposed a variety of summary statistics to capture the quality of an investment in a single number - no small feat.

May 6, 2019 — Victor sat down with acclaimed NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran to discuss some of the biggest topics in finance today.

October 4, 2019 — Michael Burry recently made some remarks concerning the index-bubble - here are our thoughts on the many topics he touched on.

November 28, 2022 — There's been excellent coverage of the public drama surrounding Sam Bankman-Fried, but an important piece of the puzzle has remained under the radar.

April 6, 2018 — Most of us associate the maxim “A penny saved is a penny earned” with Benjamin Franklin, but what he actually said is far more insightful...

January 24, 2017 — In today's world, it’s natural that investors are looking for ways to earn a good return with limited equities exposure, but is there a better solution?

September 26, 2022 — It's convention to take our local currency as the risk-less benchmark - but this assumption, while convenient, can also be misleading.