September 26, 2024 — By Victor Haghani, James White and Jerry Bell [note] Many people were instrumental in bringing this experiment and research article to life. Foremost are the contributions of our research associate James Cross, who helped design and single-handedly programmed the Crystal Ball game during the summer of 2023 while still an undergraduate at Princeton. We thank our long-time research collaborator Richard Dewey for his guidance in designing the study and interpreting the results. Jason Zweig of

September 9, 2024 — By Victor Haghani, James White and Jerry Bell Estimated reading time: 3 min. Announcing a new quarterly market snapshot going out to our research subscribers with long-term expected return estimates for US and global equity markets, plus some other useful bits of information which are also hard to find. If you'd like to receive it, you can sign up here – and yes, it's free. When we think broadly about how to invest, a good starting

August 27, 2024 — Direct indexed tax loss harvesting is incredibly popular nowadays, and has become a huge selling point for some companies - but is it all it's cracked up to be?

June 19, 2024 — The Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings ratio, also known as CAPE, has served many investors well - but here at Elm, we think it might be time for an update.