February 8, 2022
Shiller’s CAPE ratio is currently higher than it’s been for 98% of the past 120 years – that said, it doesn’t tell an investor everything on its own.
December 14, 2021
Usually, the more optimistic we are about an investment, the more of it we’ll want to own. However, that relationship can be turned on its head…
August 6, 2021
Now, more than any time in the past 70 years, investors are concerned that there’s no truly risk-free asset.
March 19, 2020
Uncertainty over the public and economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic will keep markets extremely volatile – but admist such uncertainty, it’s a particularly good time to take stock of long-term return prospects.
December 11, 2019
Understanding the origins of wealth inequality is critical in the debate over what, if anything, to do about it. Are investment fees and taxes really to blame, or is there something else at play?
January 14, 2019
Investing is arguably about making predictions and placing bets accordingly – but there are some strategies where your predictions are correct, but you lose money anyway!
December 18, 2018
By Victor Haghani and James White Most of us working in the finance industry are used to being regularly called on to predict where different assets are heading. We figure […]
October 31, 2018
Last week, financial journalists tackled the lottery jackpot of $1.54 billion. We loved their work, but there was one question left unanswered…
August 30, 2018
When it comes to the long-term return of the equity market, our framework strikes many investors as high (at 5.3% above inflation) compared to the most popular valuation ratio.
April 6, 2018
Most of us associate the maxim “A penny saved is a penny earned” with Benjamin Franklin, but what he actually said is far more insightful: “A penny saved is two pence clear.”
February 26, 2018
The ongoing attack on stock-picking waged over the past 65 years now has the upper hand – it’s become part of the conventional wisdom that investors should invest primarily in index funds.
November 26, 2017
Early in the 1950s, academics and investors started proposing a variety of summary statistics to capture in a single number the quality of an investment – no small feat, as history shows.
November 20, 2017
The 12-month winning streak of the stock market through the end of October reminded me of a Friday afternoon on the Salomon trading floor…
November 9, 2017
In a world with two classes of assets – cash and equities – how can investors in aggregate increase their allocation to equities (given that, for every buyer, there has to be a seller) and so cash can’t come into or leave the market?
October 17, 2017
I was 25 years old and had been on John Meriwether’s Arb Desk for just over a year, following two years working in Salomon’s Bond Portfolio Analysis Group…
October 2, 2017
While there may be reasons to worry about the current price levels of U.S. equities, but…
August 7, 2017
An investor once told us she wanted to add to her account, but felt the market was so high that she should wait for a correction before investing.
March 8, 2017
A few friends asked me how to go about putting more of their savings into the stock market. Is it better to jump in all at once, to average-in over time, or to wait for a market correction?
February 14, 2017
Most think of equities in terms of price, rather than yield – but, as we discuss below, equities do have important convexity properties.
January 24, 2017
In today’s world, it’s natural that many investors are looking for ways to earn a good return with limited equities exposure. Are the more common strategies working, or is there a better solution?
December 9, 2016
You can invest in only two assets: a risk-free asset and public equities. Your choices are: A) 100% risk-free, or B) 10% risk-free and 90% equities. What sort of returns would make you choose B?
October 26, 2016
You’re invited to a financial talk, but when you arrive, you’re offered $25 to bet on the flip of a coin for thirty minutes. How would you play?
March 23, 2016
It seems just about everyone I talk to these days is underwhelmed by the long-term expected return of the global stock market. I, too, am more worried than usual…but not for the same reason.
August 21, 2015
In this short video, we’ll discuss the five perspectives on stock market risk – and, more importantly, which is the most relevant for you and your various investing objectives.
August 19, 2015
We’re taking a moment to address a few lingering questions and comments from our recent short video, ‘The Most Important Number You Won’t Find in the Wall Street Journal’.
August 11, 2015
In this short talk, we’ll show you how to compute the most important number that’s missing from the Wall Street Journal for yourself.